Luxembourg recorded the largest decline in the European Union in new business registrations in the second quarter of 2026, according to Eurostat. But other statistics show a much more nuanced reality: establishment permits are increasing, while the number of new legal units remains high. The difference comes from how the data are defined and measured.

(Staff: Luxembourg / Economy & Entrepreneurship)

An alarming headline made the rounds in the specialist press this summer: Luxembourg reportedly recorded a 24.2% decline in new business registrations in the second quarter of 2026, the largest in the European Union. By comparison, Lithuania, the second-most affected country, recorded a 12.4% decline, and Denmark 8.2%. At EU level, the average was only -0.5%, while some countries moved in the opposite direction: Ireland increased by 20.4% and Belgium by 8.2%.

At first glance, the figure suggests a sudden collapse in entrepreneurial appetite in the Grand Duchy. The reality is much more complex, however, and a careful analysis of Eurostat’s methodology shows that this spectacular decline does not necessarily mean a crisis in business creation.

What does the Eurostat figure actually measure?

According to clarifications provided by House of Entrepreneurship, Eurostat data do not refer to the actual creation of new businesses, but to the registration of new legal units considered active, mainly from the VAT perspective. Changes in legal form, holding companies, investment funds and non-profit organisations are not included in this scope. Eurostat itself also warns that the registration of a new legal unit is only an early indicator of the intention to start an activity; it is not equivalent to the birth of a business in the economic sense, meaning the actual start of an activity generating revenue, jobs or investment.

In addition, data for recent quarters are often estimated and may be revised later. Eurostat recommends caution when interpreting quarterly series, which have a relatively short history and may be subject to adjustments.

When you change the indicator, the decline disappears

Statistics on establishment permits issued by the Ministry of the Economy show an opposite trend. According to House of Entrepreneurship, 10,342 permits were issued in 2023, 10,963 in 2024 and 11,206 in 2025. Initial applications, which more directly reflect the creation of a new activity, increased from 5,622 in 2023 to 6,815 in 2025, a 18.7% increase in two years.

The Trade and Companies Register (RCS) recorded 13,359 first registrations in all of 2025. By 30 June 2026, there were already 7,199, equivalent to 53.9% of the previous year’s total in just six months. Even if we limit the comparison to certain legal forms (SARL, SARL-S, sole proprietorships and public limited companies), the first half of 2026 already represented 52.1% of the 2025 total. These figures cannot be directly compared with Eurostat’s -24.2%, because the definitions and populations covered are different.

Signs of a slowdown, not a collapse

There are, nevertheless, indicators pointing to a slight slowdown. The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, which measures entrepreneurial activity in the start-up phase (people involved in creating a business and young enterprises up to 42 months old), recorded a decline from 9.9% in 2024 to 9.4% in 2025. The level nevertheless remains close to the country’s long-term average.

The intention to create a business declined slightly compared with 2024, but remains high: 19.8% of respondents said they intended to start a business, compared with a European average of 17.6%. This does not point to a country that has suddenly turned its back on entrepreneurship.

Conclusion

Eurostat’s -24.2% figure is real, but it does not capture the whole picture. It measures a specific indicator—the registration of new active legal units—which is not equivalent to the actual creation of new businesses. Other data, such as establishment permits and registrations in the Trade and Companies Register, indicate sustained entrepreneurial activity, with some signs of moderation but no collapse. Luxembourg continues to show entrepreneurial activity above the European average, while the striking figure for the second quarter of 2026 needs to be interpreted cautiously and in its proper methodological context.