In an online discussion, opinions are strongly divided. Some are convinced that Russia is losing, others that Ukraine is destroyed, and some predict a future in which China will take over Siberia. What is real and what is desire? an x-ray of the debate.

(Staff: Netherlands & Belgium / Geopolitics & War)

“Completely impartial, who wins the war?” – The question that sparked a storm of opinions

On a social network, a user asked a seemingly simple but extremely loaded question: “Fully impartial, who wins the Russian-Ukrainian war?” The answers were numerous and contradictory, reflecting the complexity of the conflict. From those who believe in the imminent collapse of Russia to those who foresee a division of Ukraine, the debate shows how hard it is to predict the end of a war that has already been going on for too many years.

Possible scenarios, seen by a user

A user who harshly criticizes Putin – calling him “a sick, unleashed dictator” – admits that he is not impartial. He outlines two possible scenarios: either Russia will advance to the border with Moldova, or Putin will give up, leaving behind two Ukraines – one left and several vassal republics of Russia. He warns, however, that Russian propaganda is becoming more and more aggressive and recalls the slogans of the Third Reich.

Do sanctions work? Another user says yes

Another commentator brings economic arguments: Russia had a reserve fund of 640 billion dollars, of which it had already spent between 75 and 80 billion, and 300 billion were frozen by sanctions. More than 1,000 foreign companies have withdrawn from Russia, and car production – including Lada – is affected by the lack of parts. China and India buy Russian oil, but with a 30% discount, and sea transport takes over 35 days.

A destroyed city and millions of refugees

The same user points out that Ukraine is “almost completely destroyed”, and Europe is facing millions of refugees, including men fleeing from mobilization and possible Russian agents. Even in the Netherlands, this situation is causing huge problems.

War can be extended for years

Another user believes that the front has been moving for months barely visible. Although Ukraine is strengthening, a counter-offensive would cost many lives, and Russia could only be forced to withdraw if the domestic situation deteriorates. He lists the possible causes: the exhaustion of the troops, the discontent of the population, the appearance of other fronts or the fall of Putin.

China, a gliding shadow

A user goes further: after Putin, he says, Russia will fall apart, and China will claim northern Manchuria (southeast Siberia), and Vladivostok will become a Chinese port again.

Conclusion: War does not have a clear winner

More than four years after the invasion, the question remains open. What is certain is that the war destroyed Ukraine, isolated Russia and changed the balance of power in the world. And the predictions – however well-argued – remain, at best, working hypotheses.